July 2026 - Week 1 Edition
June (and First-Half of 2026) Market Summary
Gold and silver rode a powerful bullish trend to all-time highs in late January, only to retreat after the conflict in Iran began, dropping below key support levels ($4,000 gold and $60 silver) in late June. Silver peaked at $114 on January 29, then retraced 50% to $57 on June 30 before recovering to almost $62 an ounce on July 2nd. Gold peaked at $5,586 (intra-day) on January 29, closing at $5,318 an ounce, dipping to $3,960 on June 30, but reaching above $4,140 by midday on July 2nd. Likewise, crude oil peaked at $119 per barrel on March 9, shortly after the problems in Iran erupted.
For the first half of 2026, gold is down 7% and silver is down 15%. However, when measured by the past 12 months (from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026), gold is up 21.5%, from $3,310 to $4,023, and silver is up a stunning 65.3%, from $36 to $59.50. In the same 12-month period, U.S. stocks barely gained 10%, while U.S. bonds or cash delivered less than 5% gains – far behind gold and silver. Going back three years, gold has more than doubled and silver rose 160%.
Asian demand has given gold a lot of support this year, even while some short-term U.S. gold traders sold (mostly through the ETF or gold futures). The World Gold Council researched this trend in terms of the three major metals-trading markets – in consecutive time zones – with Asian buying centered in China, European trading (in Zurich and London) and U.S. trading, allocating roughly equal 8-hour peak market trading hours to each zone. They found the gold market rose 13% (year-to-date) in Asia, was break-even (-1%) in Europe, and down 15% in U.S. markets!
Both Gold and Silver were positive through the end of May but endured a tough June, driving them temporarily underwater. We won’t find out about second quarter central bank gold buying until late July but the first quarter was surprisingly strong, at 244 metric tons, due in large part to the belated discovery of some relatively “quiet” (secret) buying by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).
So far, we know the PBOC bought eight tons of gold in April and 10 tons in May, continuing their consecutive monthly gold purchases for 19 straight months. Central banks in Poland, India and Turkey are also buying multiple tons of gold per month, so we anticipate a strong second half for gold buying, especially due to strong Asian buying and continued central bank buying.
Gold Bullion Has Seen A Price Correction But Rare Gold Coins Were Not As Affected
Yes, gold bullion has experienced a recent price correction from its all-time high but our clients, who also purchased rare gold coins, are not seeing the same results.
Rare gold coins are one of the most concentrated forms of wealth – so that more value can be saved or transported in a smaller space. That is why I recommend that rare coins be included when making gold purchases.
A portfolio of rare gold coins (the PCGS 3000 index) outperformed gold bullion from 1970 to 2025.
Typically, over time, rare gold coins, like better-date (low-mintage) $10 American Gold Eagles and $25 American Gold Eagles, outperformed gold bullion and held their value better than gold bullion during bullion’s periodic price drops, as is happening now.
While this is a great time to buy gold bullion on the dip, our clients, who have built rare coin collections along with bullion, are seeing better returns and holding more value than just those who purchased gold bullion products. I would like to point out that gold is still about 23 percent higher than it was exactly one year ago and about 166 percent higher than on January 1, 2020.
Every portfolio with a gold component should be balanced out with a rare gold coin component. Our expert team understands this and can help you make the right choices regarding precious metals and rare coins. Another investment option is a Gold IRA, something that I personally recommend to our employees and clients as a way to further diversify their overall investment portfolios.
Please check out our website or call one of our professional representatives to discuss rare gold coins and Gold IRA options that could benefit you.
Several Other Commodities are Rising Fast – Adding to Inflation Pressures
Among other competing investments to gold and stocks, most have had a bad year so far. The two leading cryptocurrencies are falling sharply. Bitcoin is down 33% and the #2-crypto competitor, Ethereum, is off 47% since the beginning of 2026 and down a whopping 68% from its October peak.
The back and forth between the United States and Iran has caused a temporary shortage in oil shipments from the Persian Gulf but the same situation also applies to the export of fertilizers in that region and on the Russia-Ukraine war front. That situation has caused many agricultural food groups to rise in tandem with oil.
The overall CRB commodity index is up over 20% so far this year, with some prices rising much faster than that – impacting the Producer Price Index (PPI) more than consumer prices.
And finally, don’t forget the main engine of gold – and burden on the dollar – the federal debt.
According to the United States Joint Economic Committee, the total gross national debt was $39.2 trillion at the end of June. They said that if the average daily growth rate over the past three years continues, we will reach $40 trillion in federal debt this fiscal year, on September 23.
This incredibly large addition to public debt is coming during a time of prosperity. If we went into a recession, these totals could rise faster, and with interest rates ranging from 4% to 5%, the cost of debt service will approach $2 trillion (5% of $40 trillion) sometime next fiscal year.
Gold rose $26 on July 1st, on a closing basis, and then rose early on July 2nd by over $55 an ounce but – more dramatically – the gold futures market rose by over 4% in just a few hours, from an intra-day low of $3,962 on Tuesday, June 30, to a Wednesday morning high of $4,131 on July 1st, giving gold buyers an immediate reward for “buying on dips” in the current long-term bull market. Silver replicated this move, with a June 30 midday low of $58 per ounce to a Wednesday morning high of $61.54 (+6%) before settling back under $60 at Wednesday’s close. By midday Thursday, silver had reached $62 an ounce. Crude oil dropped from $71.60 per barrel in midday trading on Tuesday to a low of $67.92 on Wednesday, a drop of 5.5% on more peace rumors.
June (and First-Half of 2026) Market Summary
Gold and silver rode a powerful bullish trend to all-time highs in late January, only to retreat after the conflict in Iran began, dropping below key support levels ($4,000 gold and $60 silver) in late June. Silver peaked at $114 on January 29, then retraced 50% to $57 on June 30 before recovering to almost $62 an ounce on July 2nd. Gold peaked at $5,586 (intra-day) on January 29, closing at $5,318 an ounce, dipping to $3,960 on June 30, but reaching above $4,140 by midday on July 2nd. Likewise, crude oil peaked at $119 per barrel on March 9, shortly after the problems in Iran erupted.
For the first half of 2026, gold is down 7% and silver is down 15%. However, when measured by the past 12 months (from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026), gold is up 21.5%, from $3,310 to $4,023, and silver is up a stunning 65.3%, from $36 to $59.50. In the same 12-month period, U.S. stocks barely gained 10%, while U.S. bonds or cash delivered less than 5% gains – far behind gold and silver. Going back three years, gold has more than doubled and silver rose 160%.
Asian demand has given gold a lot of support this year, even while some short-term U.S. gold traders sold (mostly through the ETF or gold futures). The World Gold Council researched this trend in terms of the three major metals-trading markets – in consecutive time zones – with Asian buying centered in China, European trading (in Zurich and London) and U.S. trading, allocating roughly equal 8-hour peak market trading hours to each zone. They found the gold market rose 13% (year-to-date) in Asia, was break-even (-1%) in Europe, and down 15% in U.S. markets!
Both Gold and Silver were positive through the end of May but endured a tough June, driving them temporarily underwater. We won’t find out about second quarter central bank gold buying until late July but the first quarter was surprisingly strong, at 244 metric tons, due in large part to the belated discovery of some relatively “quiet” (secret) buying by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).
So far, we know the PBOC bought eight tons of gold in April and 10 tons in May, continuing their consecutive monthly gold purchases for 19 straight months. Central banks in Poland, India and Turkey are also buying multiple tons of gold per month, so we anticipate a strong second half for gold buying, especially due to strong Asian buying and continued central bank buying.
Gold Bullion Has Seen A Price Correction But Rare Gold Coins Were Not As Affected
Yes, gold bullion has experienced a recent price correction from its all-time high but our clients, who also purchased rare gold coins, are not seeing the same results.
Rare gold coins are one of the most concentrated forms of wealth – so that more value can be saved or transported in a smaller space. That is why I recommend that rare coins be included when making gold purchases.
A portfolio of rare gold coins (the PCGS 3000 index) outperformed gold bullion from 1970 to 2025.
Typically, over time, rare gold coins, like better-date (low-mintage) $10 American Gold Eagles and $25 American Gold Eagles, outperformed gold bullion and held their value better than gold bullion during bullion’s periodic price drops, as is happening now.
While this is a great time to buy gold bullion on the dip, our clients, who have built rare coin collections along with bullion, are seeing better returns and holding more value than just those who purchased gold bullion products. I would like to point out that gold is still about 23 percent higher than it was exactly one year ago and about 166 percent higher than on January 1, 2020.
Every portfolio with a gold component should be balanced out with a rare gold coin component. Our expert team understands this and can help you make the right choices regarding precious metals and rare coins. Another investment option is a Gold IRA, something that I personally recommend to our employees and clients as a way to further diversify their overall investment portfolios.
Please check out our website or call one of our professional representatives to discuss rare gold coins and Gold IRA options that could benefit you.
Several Other Commodities are Rising Fast – Adding to Inflation Pressures
Among other competing investments to gold and stocks, most have had a bad year so far. The two leading cryptocurrencies are falling sharply. Bitcoin is down 33% and the #2-crypto competitor, Ethereum, is off 47% since the beginning of 2026 and down a whopping 68% from its October peak.
The back and forth between the United States and Iran has caused a temporary shortage in oil shipments from the Persian Gulf but the same situation also applies to the export of fertilizers in that region and on the Russia-Ukraine war front. That situation has caused many agricultural food groups to rise in tandem with oil.
The overall CRB commodity index is up over 20% so far this year, with some prices rising much faster than that – impacting the Producer Price Index (PPI) more than consumer prices.
And finally, don’t forget the main engine of gold – and burden on the dollar – the federal debt.
According to the United States Joint Economic Committee, the total gross national debt was $39.2 trillion at the end of June. They said that if the average daily growth rate over the past three years continues, we will reach $40 trillion in federal debt this fiscal year, on September 23.
This incredibly large addition to public debt is coming during a time of prosperity. If we went into a recession, these totals could rise faster, and with interest rates ranging from 4% to 5%, the cost of debt service will approach $2 trillion (5% of $40 trillion) sometime next fiscal year.
Gold rose $26 on July 1st, on a closing basis, and then rose early on July 2nd by over $55 an ounce but – more dramatically – the gold futures market rose by over 4% in just a few hours, from an intra-day low of $3,962 on Tuesday, June 30, to a Wednesday morning high of $4,131 on July 1st, giving gold buyers an immediate reward for “buying on dips” in the current long-term bull market. Silver replicated this move, with a June 30 midday low of $58 per ounce to a Wednesday morning high of $61.54 (+6%) before settling back under $60 at Wednesday’s close. By midday Thursday, silver had reached $62 an ounce. Crude oil dropped from $71.60 per barrel in midday trading on Tuesday to a low of $67.92 on Wednesday, a drop of 5.5% on more peace rumors.
Metals Market Report Archive >
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