April 2026 - Week 1 Edition
The Official 2025 Gold Statistics Focus on Rising ETF Demand
Overall, total gold demand in 2025 surpassed 5,000 metric tons* for the first time in history. Gold enjoyed a record year of price gains in 2025, its best year since 1979, setting 53 new all-time highs during the year, while rising 65% year over year. The biggest story was the rise in gold ETF buying around the world, with spectacular new gold ETF demand in India and a belated recovery in ETF buying in the U.S.
* NOTE: For reference purposes, a metric ton (spelled “tonne’ in official statistics) amounts to one million grams, or 1,000 kilograms, or 32,150.75 Troy ounces, worth about $145 million at $4,500 per Troy ounce gold.
Coming off a year of declining ETF demand in 2024, global gold ETF holdings grew by over 800 metric tons in 2025. This was the main engine of gold’s rise, as jewelry demand and other industrial fundamental demand sources declined. Gold bar and coin buying also accelerated in 2025, reaching a 12-year high.
As for central bank gold buying in 2025, we need to update our past comments. The World Gold Council (WGC) published a 2025 annual report saying central bank gold buying dipped below 1,000 metric tons for the first time since 2021. Central bank gold buying averaged under 500 metric tons after 2010 but then totals surpassed 1,000 metric tons each year from 2022 to 2024 – dipping to 863 tons this past year.
As for central bank buying, 2024 saw a record high of 1,092.4 metric tons, shrinking to 863.3 tons in 2025. Over the past decade, new gold purchases have been from poorer nations trying to get rich: Russia, China, India, Turkey and Poland are the top five central bank buyers, with the next being Brazil and Azerbaijan. U.S. and European central bankers are not big net buyers of gold since they already own so much gold.
Overall gold demand rose 8% in 2025 vs. a smaller (+1%) rise in new supply. Mining supply was flat while recycling activity rose by 3%, a relatively muted response to a huge surge in average gold prices.
The biggest ETF gains are due to (1) a resumption of gold ETF buying by trend-following U.S. traders and (2) the birth of a dynamic and powerful new ETF market in gold-friendly India. According to data from the Association of Mutual Funds of India – via the World Gold Council – gold ETFs enjoyed eight consecutive months of net gold ETF buying in India, totaling a net demand of 37 metric tons or 5% of global gold ETF flows. Meanwhile, U.S.-listed gold-backed ETFs added 437 metric tons in 2025.
For 2025, as we predicted at the start of last year, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by about 10%, from 108 to 98, pushing gold’s price performance higher in terms of the U.S. dollar than in terms of most other currencies. In 2025, this lured gold ETF traders back into the gold trade in a “devaluation” scenario, in which gold’s main investment role became a “dollar hedge” more than a “crisis hedge” or “inflation hedge.”
Preliminary March 2026 Market Statistics
We aren’t quite through with the first quarter but with a day to go, we wanted to publish this report ahead of Good Friday and Easter, so we’ll delay our monthly survey until next week. However, through Monday, March 30, it has been a negative month for nearly every kind of investment, mostly due to the sudden surprise escalation of the long-term conflict between the U.S./Israel alliance and Iran’s terrorist empire.
So far, gold is up 5.8% for the year but down 11% in March. Silver is down over 20% in March but slightly above break-even for the year-to-date. By comparison, the Dow is down 6% and the S&P is off over 7% in 2026. For March alone, the S&P 500 is down 7.8%, the Dow is down 7.7% and the Nasdaq 100 is down 6.5%. The big deal-changer is the price of crude oil, up 50% in March, from $67 per barrel at the start of the Iran conflict on February 28 to $101 per barrel as of Monday, March 30.
Several bullish factors are currently being ignored by most traders, as they focus on the price of oil and some domestic nuisances due to a lack of TSA funding and the suspension of other government operations.
For instance, increased military costs will likely push the current (Fiscal 2026) federal deficit to $2 trillion, creating the largest deficits since the COVID years of 2020-21. According to a report from the Congressional Budget Office, the deficit for the year ending September 30, 2026, will reach $1.9 trillion and grow to $3.1 trillion by 2036. Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit is 6.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
In the latest weekly edition of The Economist, the magazine states that the U.S. currently operates under the highest budget deficit (as a percent of GDP) in the developed world, yet our European partners still resist paying their fair share into NATO or joining the U.S. in efforts to liberate Middle Eastern oil from the leading terrorist sponsor in the region. Profoundly, Europe depends on Middle Eastern oil far more than the U.S. does, as the U.S. is energy-independent, with Europe and Asia relying on Middle Eastern imports.
Annual deficits (2026) as % of GDP
(In the world’s biggest economies)
USA 6.5%
China 5.7%
Britain 5.0%
India 4.3%
Germany 3.8%
Mexico 3.8%
Euro Area 3.3%
Russia 2.6%
Canada 2.2%
Japan 1.6%
It’s no wonder the dollar is down when the U.S. shoulders the lion’s share of costs to defend the world against rogue powers, while Democrats in Congress want more domestic spending. It’s a classic example of Guns & Butter economic theory.
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