March 2026 - Week 1 Edition
February and Year-to-Date Market Summary
February was another great month for precious metals – especially compared with a flat stock market – as the late January correction in precious metals prices caused enough gold bugs and new gold investors to buy on dips, as we have long counseled here. As February came to a close, gold traded once again above $5,200 and silver was nearly $95 per ounce, not even counting the added bounce over the weekend and Monday morning in response to the new military action in Iran.
Silver was the best-performing metal in February and year-to-date, even though it fell the furthest during the late January price correction. That’s basically because silver is a much smaller market share and is therefore more volatile in price swings on the up- and downside.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was basically flat during the first two months of 2026, so these hefty gains in precious metals are evident in most other currencies, as well as in the dollar.
The stock market has been basically flat, but that masks a huge sector rotation out of glamorous tech stocks and into the “value” stocks, those previously driven down in favor of tech, but now trading at bargain prices. Therefore, the tech-heavy NASDAQ is down, while the small-stock Russell 2000 is stronger, and the S&P is caught in the middle. One piece of evidence for this sector rotation is the fact that the equally-weighted S&P 500 (where all stocks carry same weight) is up 6.8%, far more than the size-weighted S&P, which gives much heavier weight to big tech stocks.
Interest rates are down so far in 2026, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rate down 20 basis points (-0.2%), from 4.16% at the end of 2025 to 3.96% at the end of February. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is also down slightly but crude oil prices are way up, mostly due to tensions rising in the oil transport routes out of the Persian Gulf in the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies also continue to slide, as they are now viewed by some as computer code entries, unlike gold coins.
Gold Tends to Rise After Conflicts Break Out
On Saturday, the U.S. and Israel joined forces to bomb Iran. President Donald Trump said his goal in this massive attack was to (1) eliminate Iran’s missile sites, (2) bomb their remaining nuclear facilities and (3) attack its leadership – including the aging Ayatollah in his compound. Iran quickly retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel but also on several surrounding Islamic states dubbed “allies of Israel,” Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
President Trump called on the Iranian people to take this opportunity to topple the Ayatollah’s regime, saying, “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.” He added the fact that “America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
We don’t know the long-term reaction of gold and other crisis hedges but gold quickly rose by over $150 per ounce, from barely $5,200 on Friday’s close to $5,370 by Sunday night but began correcting Monday morning. Crude oil prices also leaped by over $4 per barrel over the weekend and may rise much more this week.
This reminds us of gold’s gains in late 2023 after Hamas’ Iran-sponsored attack on Israel. That was the event that lit a fire under gold’s price over the next 2-plus years. The day before the Hamas attack, gold traded at $1,816 per ounce. By year’s end, gold was well over $2,000 per ounce but long before that surge, I met with Steve Forbes in late October 2023 to collaborate on gold price predictions and we boldly predicted gold would surpass $2,500 in 2024. It turns out predictions were conservative, as gold soared to over $2,600 in the summer of 2024 and gold has doubled once again since then.
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq also may have played a part in gold’s 500% gain from 2001-2011. This conflict with Iran looks far larger and more destructive than Israel’s response to Hamas or other recent wars in the region, so it is possible gold will continue to surge on this new conflict.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told FOX News, “I really commend what is happening here” with President Trump’s actions in Iran and they “have widespread support” from “all key European leaders.”
After conflict broke out in Iran over the weekend, gold soared higher on the news, from barely $5,200 on Friday’s close to $5,370 as of Sunday night, before the major U.S. gold markets opened on Monday. The stock “futures index” points toward stocks declining in the first week of March, in part in response to the expected rise in the price of oil due to transportation disruptions likely to block Iran’s Strait of Hormuz.
Metals Market Report Archive >
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